Just How Important Are ‘Hearts and Minds’ Anyway? Counterinsurgency Goes to the Polls

Despite all the talk of ‘hearts and minds’ being the key to counterinsurgency, local public opinion is rarely studied and when it is, it often yields surprising conclusions. Through analyzing polling data from Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, this article shows that public opinion is less malleable, more of an effect rather than a cause of tactical success, and a poor predictor of strategic victory. As a result, modern counterinsurgency doctrine’s focus on winning popular support may need to be rethought.     

Why did Sudan Lose a small war in Southern Sudan?

ABSTRACT

When on the wrong end of an asymmetry in the projection of hard power, weaker sides countenance the grim arithmetic of avoiding direct and massed confrontations. Invariably, insurgents have over the ages tended to employ indirect tactical methods to render their stronger opponents ineffective. Ultimately – interest asymmetry, regime type, asymmetries of strategy, and external intervention – combine in a complex interplay and pattern, to militate against a strong side. In Sudan, these factors interacted throughout the civil wars to produce regional autonomy and finally an independent South Sudan in 2011. Similar strategic logic had confronted many large African states battling insurgencies in Ethiopia, Angola, Nigeria, Zaire, and apartheid-era South Africa. Oftentimes, weakening public resolve has caused these governments to accommodate, capitulate or withdraw even if they try not to blink. Notwithstanding the regime type, it can be concluded that the majority of strong actors are prone to fail in a protracted, asymmetric conflict. Hence, the notion of linking victory in counterinsurgency to the degree of openness (democratic polyarchies); or closeness (totalitarianism) – is still valid but highly contestable in the case of Africa’s large dysfunctional states.     

一种新的保持分形特征的分形变形方法

针对IFS吸引子变形过程中间出现的分形特征退化的问题,提出基于局部吸引子的近似凸包及旋转匹配的特征对应方法.IFS吸引子的局部吸引子可由独立的IFS生成,IFS中每个压缩仿射映射存在不动点,构造所有不动点的凸包,即得到局部近似凸包;证明了局部近似凸包间的相似对应等价于局部吸引子间的相似对应,并提出了通过旋转匹配的特征对应方法实现局部近似凸包的配对,最后计算所有配对下相似度最高的一组局部近似凸包匹配,确定局部吸引子间的特征对应,即IFS特征对应.对两个IFS进行线性插值可实现保持分形特征的分形变形.     

高精度分数时延滤波器设计的边界拟合Remez算法

在卫星星间测距模拟信号仿真及实际测试中,为提高测距模拟信号精度和系统可用带宽,提出基于边界拟合Remez算法的高精度分数时延滤波器的设计算法。该算法利用Farrow结构的多项式近似思想,采用多项式拟合Remez算法设计滤波器的冲激响应边界系数,通过多相分解实现分数时延滤波器组。该算法改善了当设计的滤波器阶数较高时冲激响应边界的不连续现象,进而降低了群时延误差,提高了精度。仿真结果表明,该算法设计的滤波器的分数时延精度得到了提高,同时系统可用带宽提高近一倍,实现时需使用的乘法器数目也有明显降低。     

机载光电探测系统的试飞演示验证技术

机载光电探测系统的动态测试,除以地面真实目标作为背景之外,其性能的量化考核和验证主要是通过外场标准多用途目标靶来进行伴同试验。其中MRTD是使用得最普遍的综合性能指标参数,它考虑了系统各个环节及人眼睛的工作特性,能较全面地反映系统的质量。度量机载FLIR传感器灵敏度特性的另一个指标是MDTD。研究表明,对于MDTD的外场测量最好选用一个飞行架次和多次对目标的渐近探测来完成,而改变目标自身的尺寸大小或放置不同尺寸的目标,对于依次渐近目标进行MDTD测量是有利的。     

Reforming China’s defense industry

ABSTRACT

Even with sizable economic inputs, access to foreign technologies, and considerable political will, China, up until the late 1990s, experienced only limited success when it came to the local design, development, and manufacture of advanced conventional weapons. Not surprisingly, therefore, reforming the local defense industry in order to upgrade its technology base and manufacturing capabilities and to make armaments production more efficient and cost-effective has long preoccupied the Chinese leadership. The fact that most of these efforts had little positive impact on the country’s military technological and industrial capabilities only encouraged Beijing to experiment with additional reforms in the hopes of finally getting it right.     

Expanding the Dragon’s Reach:The Rise of China’s Anti-access Naval Doctrine and Forces

Among the multiple dimensions of the tous azimuths modernisation of Chinese naval forces, the development of China’s anti-access capacity has recently elicited considerable interest. The important link between this capacity and an overarching vision of the use of force – i.e. a naval doctrine – has, however, often been left implicit. This article shows that the particular development of China’s naval anti-access forces – more precisely, forces with an impact on the naval balance – can be explained by a shift of China’s naval doctrine towards a distinctly pre-emptive posture, which, itself, stems from the set of constraints imposed by the framework of ‘local war under informationised conditions’.     

Hardening the Hard,Softening the Soft: Assertiveness and China’s Regional Strategy

There is a growing view that the emerging brand of Chinese regional diplomacy in recent years is increasingly assertive. This article attempts to make better sense of this perceived more forceful Chinese diplomacy. It argues that Chinese regional behavior is more profitably understood through the lens of a two-pronged foreign policy strategy that combines two particular aspects. One is a tougher and more uncompromising approach toward issues that China regards as concerning its core interests. The other is a more flexible and cooperative position toward interests that, while significant, are of secondary importance.     

伪卫星增强系统参考站接收机的测距偏差及优化

伪卫星相对地面用户是静止的,因此卫星与参考站接收机之间的距离几乎是不变的。在这种情况下,采样和量化引入的误差不再服从高斯分布,从而影响接收机的测量精度。为了解决这一问题,建立了卫星导航接收机的离散数字信号模型,并在此基础上分析了采样和量化对测距偏差的影响,通过仿真验证了结论的正确性,并提出了伪卫星增强系统下参考站接收机的优化设计方法。     

二阶阶跃畸变模型下的卫星自主完好性监测接收机测距精度分析

测距精度是评估卫星自主完好性监测接收机在导航信号畸变环境下工作性能的一个重要指标。推导了卫星自主完好性监测接收机在国际民航组织二阶阶跃畸变模型下采用早晚相干跟踪处理时测距精度与畸变模型参数的解析表达式,理论分析和仿真结果表明数字畸变将导致接收机伪码鉴相器输出曲线存在过零点偏差,数字畸变量基本不影响接收机测距方差;模拟畸变将扭曲相关峰函数和鉴相器输出曲线,但鉴相器输出基本上不存在过零点偏差,模拟畸变参数、前端滤波器带宽和早晚码间距共同影响接收机的测距方差。